The Economics of Dr. Horrible

Jeffrey McManus has written a good article on the economics of Dr Horrible, using reasonable guesstimates on the numbers behind the scenes:

If the show sells 100,000 units on iTunes, he makes $229,840 $87,280; if it sells a million copies, he winds up making more than four million dollars more than $2.6 million on his original “low six-figure” investment. And that’s before the DVD even comes out.

Joss Whedon responded on Whedonesque thusly:

This was a sensible article on a subject that will, if we beret-wearing artistes have our way, will matter very much. And the guestimates were not far off, as far as I noticed.

This was obviously an experiment, and one which looks like it will be a huge success for all involved. It strikes me though, that much like the Radiohead In Rainbows experiment (which, interestingly, probably generated around $2.5 million), these experiments can only exist because of the high profile and existing fanbase that was created using the machinery the artists are trying to escape. Who knows how many column inches have been devoted to Dr Horrible and In Rainbows? All of it free, all of it driving the audience higher and higher, all of it generated from the fact that the creators were already famous and popular.

If, say, I was clever enough to have thought up Dr. Horrible, would have it had the same success? The answer to that is pretty obvious, sadly. I certainly wouldn’t have been able to perform the same scarcity trick that Joss Whedon has, which is what’s going to drive the revenue. Anything I might do on the web (at least in the near future… hah) will have to be similar to The Guild (which you should definitely watch, if you haven’t already) – long-lived, with merchandise and DVD sales. Although I suppose you could also have a pay-for-HD-download option – I don’t think I’ve seen that anywhere yet.

As an aside, I can’t believe that Dr. Horrible is region-restricted in the iTunes store. That’s just crazy.

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